Bitcoin’s (BTC) futures market reflects a possible price cooldown after the cryptocurrency’s multiple weeks of correction. Data from CryptoQuant indicated that the BTC-USDT futures leverage ratio with respect to open interest (OI) has halved since peaking in early 2025.

This significant de-leveraging has occurred because of massive liquidations over the past few weeks, which has effectively taken a majority of traders out of the market. Thus, the current market conditions indicate a healthier market reset, which is not overheated and could potentially pave the way for a steady price recovery.

Bitcoin’s open interest dropped 28% from $71.8 billion on Dec. 18 to $51.8 billion on April 8. This underscores the magnitude of the current deleveraging event. Although this may induce short-term volatility, as few market players might control the price, it also positions BTC for stability in the long term, offering an advantage in the current uncertain trend.

Related: Bitcoin futures divergences point to transitioning market — Are BTC bulls accumulating?

$70K Bitcoin is the worst-case scenario, says analyst

In an X post, Sina, the co-founder of 21st Capital, presented an update on his Bitcoin Quantile Model and said that “Bitcoin is getting significantly de-risked here.”

The analyst explained that Bitcoin might have already completed 75-80% of its correction, declining from $109,000 to $74,500. Historically, prices have fallen by as much as 34% during the six-to-eight-week span of such trends. Currently, Bitcoin has dropped 31% from its all-time high, and a further decline to $72,000-$70,000 would bring it to approximately 34%. Sina added,

“Absent a recession, $70K is my worst-case scenario. While the macro backdrop remains grim and further sell-off is possible, we think Bitcoin is deeply undervalued for a long-term investor.”

However, the likelihood of an immediate recovery remains low, as Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. expects BTC to move sideways in the “volatility corridor.”

The volatility corridor identified a price range of $75,000 to $96,000, outlined with the help of short-term holders’ realized prices over different time periods.

Adler Jr. said that it was possible that BTC would consolidate between these levels over the next few weeks but warned that the price must hold a position above the 365-day simple moving average. A break below the key indicator could potentially lead to a new yearly low below the $74,500 level, with the ideal price being $70,000, as noted earlier.

Related: Trump tariffs reignite idea that Bitcoin could outlast US dollar

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

United States President Donald Trump has issued a 90-day pause for "reciprocal tariffs," and lowered the tariff rate to 10% on countries that do not retaliate with counter-tariffs.

However, the President also said he would increase the reciprocal tariff rate on China to 125% due to the country's counter-tariffs against the US. Trump wrote in an April 9 Truth Social post:

"At some point, hopefully, in the near future, China will realize that the days of ripping off the USA and other countries is no longer sustainable or acceptable."

According to data from TradingView, the S&P 500 index rallied by close to 7% and the Nasdaq is up roughly 8% following the announcement, showcasing the high volatility of capital markets amid the macroeconomic uncertainty and the potential for a protracted trade conflict.

Related: Bitcoin has 'fully decoupled' despite tariff turmoil, says Adam Back

This is a developing story, and further information will be added as it becomes available.

Prediction marketplace Kalshi has started taking Bitcoin (BTC) deposits in a bid to onboard more crypto-native users.

The company that lets users bet on events ranging from election outcomes to Rotten Tomatoes film ratings has seen a strong uptake among crypto traders, Kalshi told Cointelegraph on April 9. For instance, event contracts for betting on Bitcoin’s hour-by-hour price changes have seen $143 million in trading volume to date, a spokesperson said.

Kalshi is a derivatives exchange regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). As of April 9, it listed some 50 crypto-related event contracts, including markets for betting on coins’ 2025 highs and lows, as well as on headlines such as US President Donald Trump’s proposed National Bitcoin Reserve. 

The platform started accepting crypto payments in October when it enabled stablecoin USD Coin (USDC) deposits. 

Kalshi relies on ZeroHash — a crypto payments infrastructure provider — for off-ramping BTC and USDC and converting the deposits to US dollars. The exchange accepts BTC deposits only from the Bitcoin network.

Related: Kalshi traders place the odds of US recession in 2025 at over 61%

More accurate than polls

Launched in 2021, Kalshi rose to prominence ahead of the US’s November elections. 

It became a top venue for trading on 2024 political events after winning a lawsuit against the CFTC, which tried to block Kalshi from listing contracts tied to elections. 

The regulator argued that political prediction markets threaten the integrity of elections, but industry analysts say they often capture public sentiment more accurately than polls. 

For instance, prediction markets, including Kalshi, accurately predicted Trump’s presidential election win even as polls indicated a tossup.

“Event contract markets are a valuable public good for which there is no evidence of significant manipulation or widespread use for any nefarious purposes that the Commission alleges,” Harry Crane, a statistics professor at Rutgers University, said in an August comment letter filed with the CFTC.

As of April 9, Kalshi traders peg the odds of the US entering a recession at 68%, according to its website.

In March, Kalshi partnered with Robinhood to bring prediction markets to the popular online brokerage platform. Robinhood’s stock rose some 8% on the news. 

Kalshi competes with Polymarket, a Web3-based prediction platform. Polymarket processed more than $3 billion in trading volumes tied to the US presidential election despite being off-limits for US traders.

Magazine: Bitcoin heading to $70K soon? Crypto baller funds SpaceX flight: Hodler’s Digest, March 30 – April 5

Risky assets remain volatile as trade war tension between the United States and China keeps investors on the edge. A minor positive is that Bitcoin (BTC) has avoided a sharp fall and is trading well above the crucial near-term support at $73,777. 

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said in a post on X that the PBOC (People’s Bank of China) could give the catalyst needed for the next leg of the crypto bull run by weakening the yuan. Such a move led to Chinese capital flight into Bitcoin in 2013 and 2015, and it could work again in 2025.

The situation remains fluid and difficult to predict. Therefore, investors seem to be curtailing risk, as seen from the $595.9 million in outflows from the US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the past four trading days, per Farside Investors data.

Could Bitcoin hold above the $73,777 support, or will the bears pull the price below it? How are the altcoins positioned? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin tried to start a recovery on April 8 but met with strong selling near the 20-day exponential moving average ($82,218). That suggests the sentiment remains negative, and traders are selling on rallies.

The downsloping moving averages indicate an advantage to bears, but the positive divergence on the relative strength index (RSI) suggests the bearish momentum could be slowing down. However, if the $73,777 level cracks, the BTC/USDT pair could swiftly nosedive to the next support at $67,000. Solid buying is likely to emerge in the $67,000 to $65,000 support zone.

The 50-day simple moving average ($85,703) remains the key overhead resistance to watch out for. Buyers will have to drive the price above the 50-day SMA to suggest that the corrective phase may have ended. Until then, rallies are likely to be sold into.

Ether price analysis

Ether (ETH) has been in a strong downtrend, but the price has reached the $1,368 support, which could start a relief rally.

The ETH/USDT pair could rise to the 20-day EMA ($1,786), which is likely to act as a stiff hurdle. If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the bears will try to sink the pair below $1,368. If they can pull it off, the pair may collapse to $1,150.

Instead, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA but rebounds off $1,368, it will signal a range formation in the near term. A break and close above the 20-day EMA suggests the bears are losing their grip. The pair may then ascend to the breakdown level of $2,111.

XRP price analysis

XRP (XRP) tried to rise above the breakdown level of $2 on April 8, but the bears held their ground. That suggests the bears are trying to flip the level into resistance.

If the price turns down and breaks below $1.61, the XRP/USDT pair could resume the downtrend. The next support on the downside is at $1.27.

Conversely, if buyers drive the price above the 20-day EMA ($2.10), it suggests solid demand at lower levels. There is a minor hurdle at the 50-day SMA, but it is likely to be crossed. If that happens, the pair could rally to the resistance line, where the bears are expected to sell aggressively.

BNB price analysis

BNB (BNB) is trying to form a higher low at $520, indicating solid buying by the bulls at lower levels.

The bulls will try to push the price toward the downtrend line, which is expected to act as a solid barrier. If the price returns from the downtrend line, it will indicate that the bears are active at higher levels. The BNB/USDT pair may oscillate inside the triangle for a while.

The support line is the crucial level to watch out for on the downside. A break and close below the support line could open the doors for a fall to $460. Buyers are expected to defend the $460 level with all their might because a break below it may sink the pair to $400.

Solana price analysis

Solana (SOL) has been trading below the $110 support, but the bears have failed to start a downward move. That suggests a lack of aggressive selling at lower levels.

Buyers are expected to face stiff resistance in the $110 to $120 zone. If the price turns down from the overhead zone, it will signal that the bears remain sellers on rallies. That heightens the risk of a break below $95. The SOL/USDT pair may then tumble to $80.

Alternatively, a break and close above $120 suggests that the markets have rejected the breakdown below $110. The 50-day SMA ($135) may act as a resistance, but it is likely to be crossed. The pair could rise to $147 and, after that, to $180.

Dogecoin price analysis

Dogecoin (DOGE) is witnessing a tough battle between the bulls and the bears near the $0.14 support.

The downsloping moving averages indicate advantage to bears, but the positive divergence on the RSI suggests the selling pressure is reducing. However, if the price dips and maintains below $0.14, the selling could pick up again. The next stop on the downside is at $0.10.

Contrarily, a break and close above the $0.20 resistance signals the formation of a double bottom pattern. The DOGE/USDT pair could rally to $0.24 and later to the pattern target of $0.26.

Cardano price analysis

Buyers are trying to keep Cardano (ADA) above the $0.50 support but are expected to face selling on every minor rally.

If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA ($0.65), it increases the risk of a break below $0.50. The ADA/USDT pair could then drop to $0.45 and subsequently to $0.40. Buyers are expected to fiercely defend the $0.30 to $0.40 support zone.

The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the pair may climb to the 50-day SMA ($0.72). This is an important level for the bears to defend because a break above it signals a short-term trend change.

Related: Bitcoin price at risk of new 5-month low near $71K if tariff war and stock market tumult continues

UNUS SED LEO price analysis

UNUS SED LEO (LEO) has started a recovery, which is expected to face selling at the 20-day EMA ($9.36).

If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will signal that the sentiment has turned negative and traders are selling on rallies. That increases the risk of a break below the $8.80 support. If that happens, the LEO/USD pair could drop to $8.30.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price rises and maintains above the 20-day EMA, it indicates solid buying at lower levels. The bulls will then attempt to push the price to the overhead resistance at $9.90.

Chainlink price analysis

Chainlink (LINK) has dropped to the support line of the descending channel pattern, where buyers are expected to step in.

The rebound off the support line is expected to face strong selling at the moving averages. If the price turns down sharply from the moving averages, the LINK/USDT pair could break below the support line. The next support on the downside is at $8.

Buyers have an uphill task ahead of them. They will have to push and maintain the price above the 50-day SMA ($14.50) to suggest that the bearish momentum has weakened. The pair may then rise to the resistance line.

Toncoin price analysis

Toncoin (TON) is finding support at $2.84, but the failure to start a strong rebound suggests a lack of demand from the bulls.

The 20-day EMA ($3.41) is sloping down, and the RSI is in negative territory, indicating that bears have the edge. If the price dips below $2.84, the TON/USDT pair could plunge to $2.35.

If buyers want to prevent the downside, they will have to drive and maintain the price above the moving averages. That could open the doors for a rally to $4.14, where the bears are expected to mount a strong defense.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.